Marketing Forecast Calculator

Scenario

01Target

What are we trying to hit, and over what period?

Business goal type

Pick the conversion you're driving. This changes how the calculator talks about leads/orders, and what defaults to load.

Target type

Start from volume (how many) or revenue ($). We derive the other.

Monthly lead target This month

How many leads do you need this month?

02Paid media

Last month's results inform this month's plan.

This month's paid budget Planned

Total monthly spend you have allocated across Meta + Google for the period you're forecasting.

This month's Meta / Google split Planned

How you're planning to split the budget across platforms this month. Adjust the slider.

50% Meta Google 50%

Meta CPL Last month

Average cost per lead from Meta last month.

Google CPL Last month

Average cost per lead from Google last month.

Direct & organic share Last 30 days

The % of total leads/sales that come without paid help — direct, brand search, walk-in, organic. Defaulted to 40%, override using your analytics.

Why this matters If 40% of leads come without paid, paid only needs to drive the other 60%. This is the most important number when defending budget — it stops paid being blamed for the cost of all leads.

03Brand DNA

The economics underneath the marketing. Set these once per scenario.

Currency

Value per lead

Average revenue from each lead that converts. Includes initial sale only (lifetime value if you want, but be consistent).

AOV — Average Order Value Equation: Total revenue ÷ Number of orders. Used everywhere downstream — it's the multiplier that turns leads into revenue and CPL into ROAS.

Contribution margin

The % of each $1 you keep after the costs of fulfilling that order. Not profit margin — overheads (rent, salaries) aren't included.

Contribution Margin (CM%) Equation: (Revenue − Variable costs) ÷ Revenue. Variable costs = COGS + shipping + fees + returns. Used to calculate Breakeven ROAS = 1 ÷ CM%. The lower your CM%, the higher the ROAS you need to be profitable.

How the default 70% breaks down

Override the defaults if you have specifics. Changing these doesn't auto-update CM above — that's the override you control.

COGS

Cost of Goods Sold — what you pay to deliver each order. Products for ecom, labour/materials for services.

Shipping / fulfilment

3PL, pick & pack, delivery. Usually 5–10% for ecom; ~0% for services.

Transaction fees

Payment processing (Stripe ~2.9%), platform fees (Shopify, marketplace cuts), merchant fees.

Returns / refunds

Rate of orders that come back. Ecom average is 1–5%, services usually negligible.

Forecasting

Enter your numbers to see where you'll land.

Forecast leads

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Forecast revenue

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Blended ROAS

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Blended CPA

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Channel forecast

Channel	Leads	Revenue	Spend	CPA	ROAS

Week	Spend	Paid leads	+ Direct/Organic	Total	Revenue

The conversation to have with your leadership team

Auto-generated from your forecast. Three honest questions, three honest answers, three actions ahead.

Question	Honest answer	Action ahead

Anatomy of an order

Breakeven ROAS Minimum return on every $1 of spend to not lose money.

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Projected ROAS Total forecast revenue ÷ paid spend.

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Profit per order after CAC What's left per order after acquisition costs.

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Breakeven CPL Maximum CPL where you still break even.

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